FORWARD THINKING wk #1 By: Joseph "Cuda Joe" Knowles
A look at some interesting fantasy match-ups for the upcoming weekend!
Forward Thinking is a weekly article that will be posted on Monday or Tuesday each week during the season. This article focuses on fantasy match-ups for the upcoming fantasy week and gives an early look at those players that, judging by the stats, should have a post a good fantasy performance. We use statistics such as Fantasy Points Against, History Versus Team, and current NFL defensive stats to indicate where we see an advantage or disadvantage. As the season goes along we will have a much better idea how things are shaking out for this season, but until then I’ll use last years stats and other match-up info to try and keep you on the cutting edge of “who to start” recommendations.
Fantasy Mismatches
Like him or not, San Francisco has installed Shaun Hill as the starting QB and with this weeks upcoming match-up against the Arizona Cardinals you need to at least consider starting him. It’s unlikely that you are counting on Hill as a weekly starter unless you are in a league that starts two QB’s each week, but if you have a middle of the road starter with a tough match-up then you should take advantage of the more than 18 fantasy points per game that the Cardinals D allowed per contest last season. Maybe it’s because their secondary is bad, or maybe it’s because their offense puts points on the board and forces other teams to throw the ball; either way it’s a good match-up for Hill who posted over 200 yards passing and two scores against them in his first game as a starter last season. In case you are still having reservations about Hill, let me tell you this, in eight starts last year he posted six games where he scored two times! He’s a legit fantasy play if you need him and he won’t have a better match-up than he does this week.
Cincinnati Bengals RB Cedric Benson has not done much over the first four years of his career to build confidence in him as a fantasy starter, but toward the end of last season Benson turned in some note worthy performances against two lesser NFL defenses. With two favorable match-ups against the Browns and the Chiefs; Benson ran for a combined 282 yards while averaging 4.5 per carry. This weekend’s match-up against the putrid Denver Broncos run defense that allowed over 146 yards per game last season should be another good start for Benson. In fact, the Broncos allowed an astonishing 29.7 fantasy points per game to opposing RB’s last year. With that in mind we recommend you start Benson at home this weekend and capitalize on the match-up.
As bad as the Broncos defense was last year, the St. Louis Rams run defense wasn’t much better allowing over 28 fantasy points per game to opposing runners. This week, Seahawks starting RB Julius Jones looks to take advantage of the match-up much like last season when in the only game he started against the Rams; he logged 22 carries for 140 yards and a score. Jones has been battling a leg injury in camp, but he has received a clean bill of health and a vote of confidence from new head coach Jim Mora. Despite the signing of veteran RB Edgerrin James, Jones is expected to see the bulk of the carries in a new run heavy Seattle offense this week and should expose the Rams soft run defense with a solid fantasy performance.
If you’re looking for a third wide receiver to get in your starting line-up this weekend that should out produce your expectations, look no further than Rams WR Donnie Avery. Despite missing the bulk of the pre-season with a broken bone in his foot, Avery was able to start in the Rams final pre-season contest and by all accounts is fully healthy. In his two starts against the Seahawks last year Avery was a work horse for the Rams piling up nine catches. A Horrible pass defenses a year ago, the Seahawks allowed opposing fantasy wide receivers over 25 points per contest and allowing an NFL worst 271 yard per game. Don’t let the pre-season injury stop you from taking advantage of this match-up and getting Avery into your starting line-up for week one.
The Chicago Bears allowed over 22 fantasy points per game last season to opposing WR’s and with what I see as very little upgrades in off season and a injured Charles Tillman listed as questionable, this weekends match-up against the Packers should be more of the same. The obvious play is Greg Jennings, but I like Donald Driver to have a big game this week. Driver had over 60 yards receiving each of the games against the Bears last season and should be able to continue that success this year. If you have Driver on your team make sure you activate him for this first weeks match-up.
There were a lot of statistics that had the Detroit Lions at or near the bottom last season and one of them was the fantasy points allowed to opposing TE’s; where they allowed an average of almost ten points per game. I know it’s a new year, but I suspect the Lions defense is still going to have trouble containing receiving TE’s; especially in the RedZone. With that in mind I think it’s a safe bet to say that Jeremy Shockey is good play this week against the lowly Lions. Despite a terrible 2008 season Shockey did post one of his better games of the year against the Lions when he logged 5 catches for 37 yards. In addition to the great match-up, by all reports Shockey has been playing well this pre-season and a season ending injury to back-up TE Billy Miller should leave Shockey seeing even more passes.
Fantasy Mistakes
With an ADP that still has him coming out as a probable starter for some fantasy teams, this weeks match-up for Eli Manning is one that should be avoided. Manning lines up with the division rival Redskins and historically has had very little success against them. In fact, over the last two seasons and four starts against them, he has only thrown for three TD’s and in his career has never thrown a multiple TD game against the Skins! In addition, the Redskins were one of the tougher pass defenses in the league last season only allowing an average of 12.9 fantasy points per contest to opposing QB’s. Not to worry though, Manning has a great stretch of games coming up staring in week four and lasting through week seven where he plays four of the leagues worst pass defenses. So if he’s on your fantasy team, just wait until then to start him.
It’s a tough thing to do, but you honestly need to consider benching Titan RB Chris Johnson this week against the Steelers. Yes I know you drafted him in the first round, but this is the Steelers defense that is one of the best in the league and last season only allowed an average of 14.7 fantasy points per contest to opposing RB’s. Given the fact that Johnson still shares carries with LenDale White and is unlikely to get the goal line work, it will be prudent to use other options if you have them. Last season against the Steelers Johnson was held to just 70 total yards however he did score a TD in that game. If you view him as a must start player then by all means start him, but if you have other options at least consider them.
I know that most people are no longer expecting much from former stud and new Jacksonville WR Torry Holt, but we wanted to mention his surprisingly horrible match-up this week anyhow. Facing off against the Indianapolis Colts would not be a match-up that most people would view as bad, but upon closer inspection, the Colts were actually one of the most stingy teams when it came to the passing attack last season. Part of that is a result of how easy it was to run on them, but regardless of that fact, the Colts held opposing fantasy WR’s to just over 13 points per game. That total had them ranked second in the league to the previously mentioned Steelers. So if you were thinking Holt might somehow find his way into your starting line-up this weekend I would reconsider his spot for someone with a better match-up.