2008-2009 Team Review

The mantra of George Karl and his Denver Nuggets last year was “less is more.”  In order to remain closer to the salary cap and pay less luxury tax, they gave away Marcus Camby to the Clippers for an option to exchange second-round picks with Los Angeles in 2010 and a $10 million trade exception, of which they have used a little over $1 million of it in July to acquire Arron Afflalo. This leaves Denver with just under $9 million in trade exception money to spend to date.  They also exchanged perennial All-Star Allen Iverson for local product and more of pass first floor general in Chauncy Billups, who is less expensive per year than AI had been but with a year more on his deal than Iverson.

Billups took control of this team and infused them with the defensive intensity that they had lacked in the past.  Nene returned from a bout with testicular cancer that demolished his 07-08 campaign and played at a high level for 77 games and Kenyon Martin became one more year removed from microfracture surgery on his knee and played in 66 games which is a good number for him.  Plus, to lessen the loss of Camby even further, Chris ‘Birdman’ Andersen returned to the Nuggets from his drug suspension and played a major role off the bench.

While Karl and the Nuggets lost a previous Defensive Player of the Year (Camby  2006-7) and a future Hall of Famer in Iverson, the resurgence of  Nene, the return of Birdman and the leadership of Billups vaulted them to 54 wins and a three way tie with the Blazers and the Spurs for the second best record in the Western Conference and a date with the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals.

As detailed below, Denver did not make any major moves in the off-season. They became an elite Western Conference team in 08-09 and built great chemistry and success, which they are looking to carry over into the 09-10 with the same major players. They will continue to be a strong team both in reality and fantasy while remaining fiscally conservative.

Off Season Moves

Draft – Denver did not own a 1^st round pick in the 2009 NBA draft. They ended up with the 18^th pick from the Wolves in exchange for a 2010 1^st round pick that came from the Bobcats and selected PG Ty Lawson from North Carolina.  Lawson will not be a fantasy factor while Billups is healthy. They took another PG in Spainard Sergio Llull with the 4^th pick in the 2^nd round and promptly dealt his rights to the Rockets. The 21-year-old Llull will most likely be playing for Spanish team Real Madrid for the next two years regardless of who owns his rights.

Trades- The Nuggets made a few moves at the end of their bench with zero fantasy implications. They ended up trading Sonny Weems and cash (part of the trade exception from the AI deal mentioned above) and ended up getting Arron Afflalo and Malik Allen to give them much needed depth at the PF and SG positions.

Free Agent Signings– The Nuggets lost defensive stalwart and J.R. Smith playing time bandit Dahntay Jones to the Pacers through free agency and long-range shooter Linas Kleiza to the Greek team Olympiakos.  They are reportedly looking to add a shooting guard with Smith starting out the season with a 7 game suspension, a result of Smith's guilty plea this summer to reckless driving during a 2007 auto accident that killed his friend. Thus far, the Nuggets have signed ex-Raptor swingman Joey Graham to their training camp roster and are said to be in talks with veteran Wally Szczerbiak.  Chris Andersen, Anthony Carter, and Johan Petro were also re-signed over the off-season

Impact Players  

Chauncy Billups quickly became the heart, soul, and leader of the Nuggets at the beginning of last season when he joined the team and ended up ranking 22nd overall per game and 16th overall cumulatively on BBM (basketballmonster.com).  Look for Billups in the early to mid 2^nd round (all round drafted suggestions assume a 12 team league) when PGs like Calderon, Nash, Kidd, and Devin Harris are going off the board.

Carmelo Anthony had several nagging injuries that slowed him last year and led to 22 missed games, a per game rank of 82, and a cumulative rank of 105 on BBM.  It is reported that these injuries are behind Melo and he has shown that he can provide more than just scoring in recent years. I would look for him in the 4^th round when the dependable studs are off the board and you  begin to have flawed players that could have huge years left to choose from. I expect Melo to bounce back this year; the only questions are ‘how much?’ and ‘what is his true upside?’ when you look at his contributions in categories aside from scoring.

Nene Hilario came through last year when the Nuggets brass gave Camby away and he inherited the starting center job.  After past injuries and health concerns, Nene played 77 games and was good for per game rank of 27 on BBM.  Due to Nene’s injury risk, I wouldn’t consider him until the end of the 4^th round and he should be gone by the end of the 5^th.

J.R. Smith finally played with some consistency last year on offensive, showed he can play defense at a high enough level to satisfy George Karl, and finally worked his way out of Karl’s doghouse.  The knock against the 24 year old Smith was his general maturity and decision making and his work ethic on the defensive end.  Smith had shown in the past that he can nail 3s along with the best in the league and can also provide solid points, ft%, and steals numbers.  Now that he has Karl behind him, the starting SG spot to himself with Dahntay Jones gone, and has proven that he can put up numbers night in and night out, Smith is a high upside sleeper coming into the new season. As mentioned above, he is suspended for the first 7 games of the season and that will surely cause him to slip a few spots.  Even so, I would look for Smith in the late 7^th or 8^th rounds of your draft, depending on who else is available and your league format.

Kenyon Martin silenced many doubters in the last few years.  He has averaged over 1 steal and 1 block per game for the last two years and played in 66 games in 08-09 and 71 games in 07-08.  We know he will miss games and we know that he will have a lousy ft%, but Martin has been saying lately that he feels better than he has in a long time and “has his legs back.”  He’s definitely worth a flyer in the later rounds of your draft and the Nuggets will lean on him a little more now that Kleiza is gone.

Chris Andersen, aka ‘Birdman’, pleased many fantasy owners who took a chance on him in the second half of last season. Even though he came off the bench all of last year, in his last 40 games of last season Birdman only averaged 22.4 minutes per game but his monster block totals – 3.0 blocks per game in this time span – vaulted him to a BBM per game ranking of 55.  With Birdman having one full year back in the NBA under his belt after returning from an exile type drug suspension and with Martin and Nene not exactly the most dependable when it comes to health, I see a small playing time improvement at worse and see Birdman as a 1 cat blocks specialist who can make up a lot of ground for you in roto and win blocks for you single handedly some weeks in head to head.  I would look for Anderson in the 9^th round or later, but a GM willing to overpay for blocks may be willing to pay more that that for him.